Zero for 40 at Predicting Attacks: Why Do Media Still Take FBI Terror Warnings Seriously?

"But one key detail is missing from this  graphic: None of these 'ISIS arrests' involved any actual members of ISIS, only members of the FBI—and their network of informants—posing as such. (The one exception being the man arrested in Arizona, who, while having no contact with ISIS, was also not prompted by the FBI.) So even if one thinks the threat of 'lone wolf' attacks is a serious one, it cannot be said these are really 'ISIS arrests.'  Perhaps on some meta-level, it shows an increase of 'radicalization" but it’s impossible to distinguish between this and simply more aggressive sting operations by the FBI."