Strike The Root: "October Surprise," Anyone?

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January 30, 2004

"October Surprise," Anyone?

"Osama bin Laden will be captured within months, the US military said yesterday, despite new claims that al-Qaeda had established a presence in Iraq."

How can they possibly know how soon he'll be captured unless they either (a) know exactly where he is and are waiting for the most politically opportune moment to pick him up or (b) already have him and are waiting for the most politically opportune moment to pretend to capture him? I hesitate to join the conspiracy theorists who have already offered up scenario (b) as a possibility, but this article certainly makes that more plausible.

Whichever scenario turns out to be true (assuming that they aren't just bluffing or that bin Laden doesn't escape the clutches of our oh-so-effective government), I'm betting on late October to be the time bin Laden is captured (or "captured"). Anyone want to lay odds on this?

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Yep. We're thinking along the same lines.

I just contacted Ladbrokes betting service in England (via the 'net) and asked them if they were taking bets on whether or not Osama Bin Laden would be killed or captured before November 2, 2004.

Even if there response to me is "no," I would think they might reconsider if enough people made the same inquiry to them (Ladbrokes.com and then click on "contact..." on left side).

My interest isn't to actually bet, but to raise an issue: What have al-Qaeda and other sympathetic individuals/organizations been able to accomplish either directly or indirectly via Bin Laden/or the symbol of Bin Laden, since 9/11 while the US government has (irresponsibly in my opinion) invested its resources and priorities elsewhere?

If this strikes a chord with you, please spread the word and feel free to reword and/or expand the issue.

One last note. I realize that a big part of the pro-Kerry strategy will be to get as many ardent pro-Dem./pro-Kerry folks registered and to the polls as possible. As an independent who is turned off by the rhetoric of both sides, I feel very strongly that rational-reasoned presentations to that all powerful undecided-unaffiliated voter block will be the most effective for gaining Kerry votes.

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