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The Paradise Perspective: Commentary from a Free and Compassionate Alternate Reality The Year Ahead: 2009, Part 2 by Glen Allport Exclusive to STR January 15, 2009 -
Introduction - Part
One of this column discussed the economic
situation and government action, and several readers complained that I was
not cheerful or optimistic in my views. Today's column won't be any more
upbeat, I am afraid, although I do offer some positive notes and
suggestions in the final section. An
accurate sense of what is coming at least gives one better odds of making
the most of what the future holds. Ask those who sold their stocks (or
better still, sold short) before the Crash of 1929, or who left Hitler's
Germany before the worst began (or Stalin's Soviet Union, or Fidel's Cuba,
or Pol Pot's Cambodia, or Idi Amin's Uganda, or Mugabe's Zimbabwe, or –
well, any of a hundred examples recent enough to still be within living
memory, including natural disasters such as Mt.
Saint Helen's [video; 1 min 21 sec]). No one wants to hear bad news,
but for those not hoping to become Darwin
Award candidates, listening carefully to the rumbles of potential
oncoming disaster is simply another part of personal responsibility and
even, at times, self-preservation. This
could indeed be one of those times. Decide for yourself, but at least take
an open look at the situation before dismissing such thoughts. Today,
in Part 2 of this "Year Ahead" column, I'll discuss oil and
precious metals, food, and environmental issues in varying degrees of
detail. Inevitably, the economic situation (and government responses) will
become part of the discussion. I'll finish up with predictions and, as
mentioned, provide a few suggestions and offer some encouraging words. -
1 - The
Peak Oil Sucker-Punch Oil
topped out at $147/barrel
this past July, a gain of about $60/barrel from the lows of earlier in
the year. As I write this sentence on Christmas Day, oil is pegged at $36.84.
What a roller-coaster ride! Volatility is the sign of an unstable and
unsettled market; exactly what one might expect when powerful forces are
pushing prices in both
directions. The obvious question: will oil stay cheap or quickly rise
again in price? Note that "cheap" is a relative term: the
average price for a barrel of oil in 1998 was $11.91, which is to say that oil is more than three times as
expensive, even now, than it was a decade ago. (The link in the
previous sentence shows oil prices back to March, 1946, at which time a
barrel of oil cost $1.37). Update
1/5/09:
checking the price today at 321energy.com,
I see oil is $48.73, up about 25% in just over a week; oil now costs more
than four times as many dollars as in 1998 and over thirty-five times as many dollars as in 1946. Long
term, the dollar price of oil will
go even higher – and eventually much
higher. I believe "eventually" will arrive within the next year
and a half – heck, maybe later this winter – even if the demand
destruction we have seen in the last few months continues and worsens, for
three reasons, each of which would raise the dollar price of oil all by
itself: -
first,
falling production will eventually outpace falling demand (and demand will
not fall forever); -
second,
the dollar is on a path to hyperinflation; and -
third,
falling prices have already slowed
or stopped some planned (and perhaps some operating) oil production
and exploration projects. Oh,
wait – there is a fourth
reason: government wants to help solve the problem (for example, via
ethanol mandates). Always a bad sign . . . . Like
everyone else, I have been surprised at the speed and depth of the current
price slump for crude oil and other commodities, but then I have often
made the point that exact timing
and velocity of markets and other dynamic phenomena are inherently
unpredictable – and our current situation is truly unprecedented.
Longer-term trends, on the other hand, are easier to discern and, especially
when supported by multiple fundamentals, reasonably reliable. What
is the undeniable trend for oil? Diminishing
production at higher cost per barrel, and thus higher – at some
point, much higher – real
pricing. Here is how I put it midyear (including the chart mentioned in
the text below), and the fundamentals have not changed:
http://www.energyfiles.com/eurfsu/uk.html
"A
note on conservation and other voluntary reductions of usage: yes, higher
prices – even for crude oil and gasoline – tend to reduce demand, as
consumers change their habits in response. It may happen that the economic
downturn now in progress will reduce demand enough to lower prices
temporarily. But take a good look at the down-slope of the graph above
before telling yourself that voluntarily lower usage will lead to an ongoing
match with available supply anytime soon. Once again, other nations, and
almost certainly the world as a whole, have or will have very similar
down-slopes for crude oil supply. Unlike the OPEC oil embargo of the
1970s, the escalating oil shock of today and tomorrow will increasingly be
based on actual, systemic, unfixable (at least in the near term) shortages
– as well as on Reasons Number One and Three. " --
2008
Update, Part 2* If
you visit energyfiles.com,
you can see for yourself that the Global
oil production has
already peaked, or will peak soon, depending on whose data you
believe. Either way, big changes are coming. The global economic crisis
has given us not only demand destruction but also deleveraging
(see also here);
individuals and institutions have been selling anything and everything to
meet margin calls, replace lost income, and raise cash. This has depressed
the price of precious metals, oil, and many other things commonly used as
investments. While oil demand may remain lower for some time (although
upward pressure will continue from global population growth, among other
things), oil production at most
existing sites will continue dropping, and new production will be far more
expensive than what it replaces. Making the situation worse: the recent
steep drop in prices combined with the credit crunch has, as mentioned,
hammered new and financially
marginal projects, some of which have shut down or been put on hold.
This will further reduce our near-term ability to replace the accelerating
loss of production from older sources. The same forces are at work for
metals as well as for oil; today's
lower prices will actually reduce near-term future supply. Enjoy
low gasoline prices while you can, because the price of oil will rebound
at some point and then continue upward. Oil usage might contract even more
in 2009 than it did in 2008, which could mean that pricing will remain low
for most of the year or even a bit longer (on the other hand, recent oil
pricing is below costs for many producers, so even-lower prices are
unlikely). Exact
timing is always guesswork, but – especially given the current
hyperinflation of the
From
How
Deflation Creates Hyperinflation by Eric deCarbonnel I
am not predicting $850 oil as a
certainty, but I am suggesting
it as a possibility in the surprisingly near-term. Recall that as late as
1933, one could (by law) exchange a $20 bill for (roughly) an ounce of
gold; as I write this, it takes $881.70 to buy an ounce of gold, and
significantly more if you want to take physical possession. Thus, it now
takes (881.70 / 20 ≈) 44 $20
bills to buy an ounce of gold. Would your grandparents (or
great-grandparents) have believed such a thing could ever happen? Now
remind yourself of the $trillions
in new-from-thin-air bailout money and the $trillions still to come;
think about America's $10 trillion official national debt, our
skyrocketing federal deficits and our $100 trillion (or so; estimates
vary) in unfunded federal obligations for Social Security, Medicare,
pensions, and so many other things; consider the trillions of dollars held
overseas by investment funds and central banks and individuals, all
worried about whether it is time to spend their dollars back into the
system in favor or Euros or Yuan or gold or, heck, a lifetime supply of
vodka – and then, in light of all that, review the insanely escalating
numbers you've seen in charts about hyperinflation, such as the chart
above. I
mentioned a recent oil price of $36.84; just for an example, what is that
number times 44? Roughly $1,621 per
barrel. For that matter, 44 x $48.73 (the oil price just a few days
later) = $2,144.12. The dollar
took decades to depreciate to where it now takes 44 $20 bills to buy an
ounce of gold, instead of a single $20 bill. Are there any examples of
such dramatic price inflation in short
periods of time? You already know the answer: Yes,
lots of them, and in many cases, the currency devalued by orders of
magnitude more than the dollar has so far. My
point is not that
thousand-dollar-a-barrel pricing for oil is coming soon. Instead, my point
is that thousand-dollar oil could
and very well might arrive soon
for the four reasons listed earlier. Hyperinflation may or may not hit
with force before the Peak Oil chokepoint, but the two together will be
absolutely stunning. The
likely near-term effect of hyperinflation on the price of not only oil,
but of almost everything, cannot be over-emphasized. The dollar is already
near-worthless, trillions of
new dollars are being electronically "printed" rapidly and with
complete abandon, and it won't take much for confidence in the dollar as a
store of value to go the way of confidence in the integrity of Bernie
Madoff or Illinois Governor
Blagojevich. The Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and Congress are all
doing a bang-up job of hyperinflating the money supply (and our new Messiah
of Hope and Change is promising to hyperinflate
it even more), which at
some point absolutely will end
all confidence in the dollar's value. When that happens, the price of everything,
including oil and food and shoes and paperback novels and anything else
you might buy, will rise quickly enough to take your breath away, and to
take your prosperity away along with it. After
95 years of having the dollar slowly over-printed into near-worthlessness
by the Federal Reserve, many Americans (and plenty of Keynesian economists
and media commentators, as described last week) are responding with the
equivalent of "Thank
you sir! May I have another?" [video, about 14 sec, and kind
of creepy] – although it sounds more like "Please,
government masters and bankster overlords, will you print up an ocean
of new money to stimulate the
economy for us?" Some are stamping their feet and pouting for
emphasis. That
"thank you sir, may I have another?" thing was good for a laugh
in National
Lampoon's Animal House, but today's equivalent seems a lot less funny.
It especially won't be funny when Americans are rioting in the streets
because their whole world has been taken from them. But perhaps I am
getting ahead of myself. -
2 - Food
Supplies: Hunger Amidst Plenty The
most immediate problem with food supplies will soon be lack of cash, among
the American public and many others around the world, to pay for the next
meal. This will be true across much of the planet, and the UN estimates
that for the first time ever, a billion
people will go hungry this year. For the most part, this won't be caused
by food shortages – the global harvest was better than expected; a
record, even – but will happen "because people are becoming too
destitute to buy the food that is produced," according to an article
in the December 28 London
Independent. As you would imagine, the global financial crisis is
making the situation worse in several ways. For one thing, food aid is
drying up just as the need for it increases dramatically. Hunger
in the poor nations is not surprising, but the present crisis seems likely
to create enough poverty and disruption in the It
won't help that farmers, like everyone else, are having trouble getting
credit needed to run their businesses. It won't help that Americans have
off-loaded much of their food production to far-away places, or that our
federal and some of our state governments have required
increasing amounts of ethanol (mainly produced from corn) to be used in
the nation's fuel supply. Perhaps a third of our corn now goes to this
madness; the land could otherwise be used to grow not only corn but
whatever foods the market demanded, increasing supply and lowering costs. It
especially won't help when food deliveries slow to a crawl, or stop all
together, in large parts of the country after banking gridlock, massive
demonstrations, and other civil unrest and market dysfunction make
commerce in general unreliable. Of course, the government will help, as it
did in -
3 - Environmental
Issues Mankind
continues its quest to turn the Earth into a toxic waste dump populated
largely by cockroaches and bacteria, fueling what is widely acknowledged
as the
sixth great mass extinction on this planet since life began. We have
only begun our work, but already some believe we will ultimately be more successful than any
of the previous causes of mass extinction. Heck, mankind hasn't yet even
unleashed more than a tiny handful of its zillions of nuclear bombs and
missiles – just wait until we get serious
about wrecking the biosphere. We're
number one! We're number one! Poor
attempts at humor aside, the biosphere is
fragile (and
possibly unique or at least exceedingly rare in the universe) and we are
fouling the nest. I continue to be concerned that government "problem
solving" in this area is doing what it always does: making things
worse while crowding out non-government efforts that might actually be
effective. In particular, global warming advocates have become an
entrenched, government-financed special interest in science, government,
politics, non-government organizations, and some business sectors –
hampering, and often openly opposing,
evidence and commentary that refutes or questions the global warming
dogma. Given how quickly new scientific evidence can overturn accepted
scientific belief (global cooling
was the big worry about 30 years ago, for instance), government's
propensity to back one side of an issue – which then soon becomes a
protected and well-funded special interest – is exceedingly dangerous in
an area such as this one. Thankfully,
there is still enough integrity within the scientific community that a
large and growing list of qualified and respected climate scientists,
Ph.D.s, M.D.s, and others are speaking out on the scientific weakness and
actual danger of the would-be global warming hegemony.
See, for instance, the Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change,
which includes this: ". . . attempts by
governments to inflict taxes and costly regulations on industry and
individual citizens with the aim of reducing emissions of CO2 will
pointlessly curtail the prosperity of the West and progress of developing
nations without affecting climate."
[emphasis added] and ". . . a focus on
such mitigation will divert the attention and resources of governments
away from addressing the real problems of their peoples." --
Excerpted from The
Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change, This
science-based opposition to the warming dogma is leaking
out into the mainstream as well, helped along by simple observations,
including that the polar ice has not melted, the polar bears are still not
extinct from drowning, and the weather over much of the world is getting
colder recently instead of warmer. My
environmental concerns continue to focus on the oceans, lakes, rivers, and
other bodies of water. Much of the pollution
that originates on land finds its way to water at some point, with our
oceans being the final resting place for megatonnage of new chemical,
plastic, radioactive, and other pollution every year. Depleted uranium,
for one example, is both radioactive (with a half-life of over 4 billion
years) and chemically poisonous, with this chemical toxicity being "about
a million times greater in vivo than its radiological hazard" per
the heavily-documented linked article. DU has been linked
to lung cancer, and if you don't already know this, you will be
thrilled to learn that the U.S., Russia, and other nations have been on an
orgy of manufacturing, stockpiling, and using
depleted
uranium weapons for years now, both in battle and on practice ranges,
putting thousands of tons of this poison into the air, water, and soil. Today's
economic disaster is likely to
hog the spotlight for quite some time, with harmful and repressive
government responses not far behind. But tipping points can sneak up on us
quietly – quietly enough that most of us miss their approach, anyway –
as with the fall of the -
4 - Conclusion
and Predictions 2009
will not be a good year for most of us. It will not be a good year for most people around the world, but it
will be an especially bad year for those in the United States (here is Paul
Kennedy, professor of history and director of International Security
Studies at Yale University, on why the U.S. will lose ground relative to
most other nations – and for that matter, here's a Wall
Street Journal article about Igor
Panarin's forecast of the U.S. collapsing and breaking up). Below
is my assessment of the bad news, with scientifically-accurate percentages
arrived at by looking at the ceiling and thinking really, really hard
(this is exactly how they do it in weather forecasting, if the results are
any indication, and apparently also how they decide policy at the Federal
Reserve, Congress, and the Treasury
Department). Further comments and a thin gruel of positive thinking
follow at the end. First,
a note on the inflation versus
deflation debate. Several commentators see severe deflation in the
near future; traders Rick
Ackerman, Mike
Shedlock, John
Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, and Strike The Root's Jim
Davies are among those in the deflation camp, while the inflation camp
includes investor Jim
Rogers (video, 6 min 50 sec) – who calls what's coming an
"inflationary holocaust" – and Casey Research Senior Economist
Terry Coxon
(video, 3 min 33 sec), Euro Pacific Capital president Peter
Schiff (YouTube audio, 10 min 40 sec), and financial newsletter
bad-boys Bob
Chapman and Jim
Willie. For the most part, the "inflation" commentators see
hyperinflation emerging after the present deleveraging has run its course.
321gold.com's Bob
Moriarty thinks hyperinflation will begin shortly after the bond
market crashes, which he expects "any day now" (he also expects
riots in the streets – in the first quarter). Economist John Williams
believes hyperinflation has actually been inevitable for some time: "By April, the rapidly
deteriorating recession will be viewed commonly as the worst downturn
since the Great Depression. Fearing same, the incoming Obama
Administration is promising stimulus in the form of massive federal
spending . . . . Unfortunately, with the economy in a structural downturn
and with the Williams
has also pointed out that hyperinflation in pricing typically lags
hyperinflation of the money supply by several months (perhaps as long as a
year and a half). The
most common argument of the deflationists is that all the wealth recently
vaporized in the stock market crash, in the housing crash, in pension fund
losses, in investment firm bankruptcies, and in other such disasters is
deflationary: less money = deflation. There are several counter arguments
(for one thing, big financial losses are not unusual in a hyperinflation)
and some are complex. Here is Jim Willie on one such factor (he discusses
several others as well): ". . . the staggering
explosive growth in the credit derivative market since the mid-1990
decade. In just the last few years, the growth of credit derivatives,
traded over the counter, has been enormous. This is widely recognized. The
annual growth levels lie in the 40% to 60% annual range. How can the
deflationists ignore this? THIS IS MONEY IN It
seems clear that at least some factors in this issue are largely unseen
and poorly understood. The complex financial structures and enormous and
often hidden flows of money, the extreme leverage, the manipulation of
markets (e.g., the "Plunge
Protection Team", but not only
that), and an unknown number of unknowns add up to a high level of
uncertainty, especially in the near term.
Despite
all that, I remain convinced that historic examples and other reasons
point to inflation in our
future, especially beyond the very near term, and hyperinflation at that.
Indeed, the most persuasive evidence for hyperinflation, to me, is that a
great many nations have hyperinflated their way to poverty over the past several thousand years, even before paper money was in use (via
diluting or removing the precious metal content of the coinage, as in
Rome). I do not believe it will be long before the inflationary effects of
our massive and rapid money-creation show up in pricing. Legendary and
learned financial lunatic Richard Daughty, a.k.a. "The Mogambo
Guru", agrees, and below he responds to Mike Shedlock and other
deflationists: "Thus,
with a staggering, unbelievable amount of money being created, these and
many more deflationary problems will soon be just a quaint memory as
voluntary fiscal and monetary restraints around the world are being thrown
wholesale into the dumpster even as we speak, and humongous 'economic
stimulus plans' financed by massive increases in fiat money are being
trotted out across the globe, all meaning that inflation will rise and
rise. "As
if to prove me right, the article went on to note that Professor Steve
Hanke, formerly with Credit Suisse and now a senior fellow at the Cato
Institute in the United States, said that this month, 'Zimbabwe's annual
inflation had soared to 2.79 quintillion percent', which is the inevitable
result of the moron government of Zimbabwe spending decades literally
printing all the paper money that makes such inflation possible! "In
case you were wondering, 'a quintillion is a figure with 18 zeroes and is
a rung above a quadrillion', which I will helpfully write out as
2,790,000,000,000,000,000%!!!!!" --
The Mogambo Guru, When
Inflation Comes a-Knockin' With
multiple trillions of dollars now being created from thin air and more
trillions promised for years, and with monetizing the debt apparently soon
to replace foreign purchase of
From
U.S.
Inflation: Like a Hurricane! by Adrian Ash And
now my detailed forecast with, for your amusement, estimates expressed in
absurdly-precise fashion: Economics
and Government Action: Chance
of double-digit real inflation
in the U.S this year: 95% Chance
of "ohmigod" levels of hyperinflation this year: 50% Chance
of such hyperinflation beginning by mid-summer: 25% Chance
of such hyperinflation beginning, say, tomorrow afternoon: 10% Chance
of the U.S. and other Western governments actually solving the economic problem by doing what is necessary (i.e.,
slashing spending, ending all interference in the market, and adopting
gold standards – or, even better, getting out of the money business
altogether): 0% Chance
of the 100% Chance
of the 100% Chance
of the U.S. dollar retaining more than half its current value by year's
end: 50% Chance
that other nations will continue buying trillions of dollars in 5% Chance
that other nations will instead sell
significant amounts of their existing 95% Further
likely problems with the dollar include loss
of reserve currency status and loss
of the "AAA" credit rating for 50%
chance for each Chance
that the bond market will suffer a major meltdown (beyond the meltdown
we've seen already): 95% Chance
of riots, martial
law, and use of those detention
camps for 75% Chance
of the Dow Jones dropping below
4,000 (as
Jim Rogers believes might
happen): this depends somewhat on the level of inflation – the Dow
can rise in nominal terms while dropping in real terms – something it
has done in the past repeatedly. The one thing that might prevent a lower
inflation-adjusted value for the Dow would be a stock bubble, which is
certainly possible given all the dollars being injected into the system.
On the other hand, we can note that business fundamentals do not look
good; profits are likely to trend lower and consumers are broke and in
debt. Some observers believe that a
third of banks will disappear in 2009 and many more will survive only
via merger or bailout (video; 6 min 4 sec). It is widely expected that GM
and Chrysler will be forced into bankruptcy next year. Neither employment
nor any other major index for economic health looks positive, except for
niche players (foreclosure specialists, for example). The financial
sector, the housing sector, and – heck – most other sectors will not
stage anything resembling a real recovery in 2009, although, again,
monetary inflation may provide higher numbers for the stock touts to act
excited about. Chance
the Dow will be lower than
today when measured in real
terms: 75% Chance
for same without any stock
bubble effect: 95% Chance
the Dow will be lower than today in dollar
terms: 50% Oil,
precious metals, and other commodities: The
recent drop in oil prices will
prove short-lived. How far and how fast the price of oil climbs will be
determined more by monetary issues than anything else, unless this is the year that the ongoing, long-term drop in supply
finally crashes into demand sufficiently to create a double-digit
shortfall. When (not if) that happens, the oil price will skyrocket even
in constant-dollar (inflation adjusted) terms. If we see both factors
hitting at the same time – a distinct possibility for 2009 – then the
dollar price of oil will go far beyond anything most people would
currently believe. When the dollar
is worth nothing and oil demand outstrips supply by a significant margin,
$1,000/barrel oil will seem cheap. Chance
that oil pricing again tops $100/barrel this year: 95% Chance
that oil pricing again tops $100/barrel before summer: 35% Chance
that oil pricing tops $200/barrel this year: 90% Chance
that oil pricing goes ballistic (say, over $350/barrel) in 2009: 50% Chance
that oil trades at over $1,000/barrel in the next five years (assuming the 95% Unlike
oil, gold
has retained much of its price gains, with current pricing in the
mid-$800s per ounce, having fallen from a high of just over $1,000 earlier
in the year (versus oil's $147 to $30ish drop). Unlike
almost any other investment you can name, gold
finished 2008 higher than it was at the end of 2007 – in dollars
and in every other major currency. As the Fed (and other central banks
around the world) open the floodgates on new money creation, gold is one
asset that will not only rise further in price but likely enter a new
bubble. The $850 high of a few decades ago would be $2,400 or so if
inflation-adjusted, and $3,000 or higher if a more accurate measure than
the government If
you have any investments or savings at all, you are simply a fool to not
have a significant percentage of your holdings in gold, in my opinion.
Don't keep it all in one basket, of course, and get some of it out of the
country while you still can. Gold
You Can Fold and Bullion Vault
are two ways to do this (as always, caveat
emptor, but I've seen nothing negative about either firm). Silver is
another good addition to your portfolio (or an alternative to gold, for
those with smaller nest-eggs). I could always be wrong (read that again,
in case it slid by unnoticed), but history is certainly on my side here:
when currencies are being debased, gold has always been the last-resort
protection for wealth in a form that cannot be defaulted on, that cannot
go bankrupt, that is no one else's liability, and which has never, in
5,000 years of history, gone to zero worth. Even during the deflationary
depression of the 1930s, gold did well against other assets. In boom
times, gold is a dog; in bad times, gold is a haven. Chance
that gold will again top $1,000/oz in 2009: 98% Chance
that the gold price will go higher than you'd believe: 50% Chance
that most people will figure this out in time to protect their personal
wealth: 0.0% Prices
of base metals and other
commodities are near their production costs and will not likely drop much
further, but – unlike both gold and oil – these lesser commodities are
unlikely to rally too far beyond the level of inflation, at least this
year. Food
and other basic items: Higher
prices and market disruptions will create problems for most Americans and
for many others around the world. Advice: stock up now, while supplies are
available and your dollars actually buy something. Today's huge discounts
on many consumer items will evaporate when bloated inventories are
depleted, and will then rise quickly. Also be ready for shortages, riots,
and other things you'd rather not think about, just in case. Leaving the
country for a while might not be a bad idea either, although there isn't
any place that looks completely safe. The Chance
that food and dry goods will be either scarce or too expensive for the
former middle class in the 50% Environmental
issues: While
Algore and other big-money hucksters continue pushing and profiting from
the global warming scare, the planet is reeling under assaults that have
nothing to do with carbon dioxide – a very weak greenhouse gas which is
a life-giving substance required
by plants and exhaled by animals, including by you. No anti-carbon laws,
no carbon-trading
schemes, and no other such efforts of any kind will have the slightest
effect on world climate. On the other hand, cleaning up the oceans, lakes,
rivers, and so on might possibly do something useful, but hugely-expensive
global-warming-inspired mandates will reduce our ability to clean up the
environment and to do much else, besides. Chance
that a major environmental crash will occur in 2009: Non-zero,
but otherwise unknown Final
comments: Birds
will still sing in the coming year. Life
will go on despite the economic downturn, and despite whatever other
problems we encounter. Economic turmoil and even hyperinflations are
nothing new, and in fact they are common. Our ancestors – even our
parents or grandparents, in many cases – lived through depression and
war and political upheaval and all manner of other hardship. Difficult
times are a normal part of the human condition – yet lovers still kiss,
babies still smile, and a summer's afternoon remains a bit of heaven. A
major goal for this column has been to encourage you to prepare, in
whatever way makes sense to you, for unpleasant jolts in the year ahead.
Learn to garden, start a neighborhood group, buy some silver coins, move
to Preparing
for a rough year (or a rough decade, which is probably more realistic)
does not mean ignoring the truly important and positive things in life. If
anything, the opposite is true. Pay attention to family and friends and to
whatever large and small joys you find in life. Focus less on the
superficial and more on what really matters, which means both sober
preparation for hard times and conscious appreciation of the good in life.
For one thing, you surely won't want to go through the next year alone.
Family and friends, along with strategic acquaintances, will be an
important shield against hardship in the coming year as well as a source
of warmth and humanity in your life. If you are lacking in this area, now
is the time to do something about it. Good
times and bad intermingle; the recently ended 20th Century is a perfect
example. Despite wars, the Great Depression, and much other pain, the 20th
Century was in many ways an incredibly positive time, with dramatically
improved lifespan, elimination or control of many once-common diseases, a
powerful upward trend for prosperity, and technological advances that
almost defy belief. The 21st Century will bring even more
powerful transformations. For one thing, we are heading into a rapidly
accelerating curve of technological advance. For a quick reminder of the
joy and wonder (and useful benefits) of that, I suggest an occasional
visit to Wired.com or Ray Kurzweil's The
Singularity is Near website. In
addition to the ongoing rush of new technology, we will live through an
amazing social/political time in the next several months – a transition
that will be remembered for thousands of years, in the same way that the
fall of ancient Western
governments in particular have over-promised and underperformed, and their
Ponzi-scheme social programs are going bankrupt before our eyes. The U.S.
trillion-dollar-per-year overseas empire and the rest of our bizarre and
harmful overspending has only been made possible in recent years by money
from the Chinese and other foreigners – and this river of money is now
coming to an end. Crashing to a halt is more like it. Taxes will be raised
(no matter that we hear otherwise from politicians) but to no avail –
Americans are broke, in debt up to their eyeballs, and tax rates of 100%
wouldn't be enough to keep the corrupt Big Government game going. Money
will be printed to cover the shortfall, and this will kill the dollar –
something our creditors know and are starting to react to, by spending
their sequestered dollars back into the system. Paper and electronic
dollars are not wealth, and Americans have spent
all the real wealth they had and then sold themselves into a level of
debt never before seen in history. How much longer can that go on? In
fact, the whole Rube Goldberg edifice has already begun to collapse – that
is what the news has been telling us for most of 2008. It
is possible, although I think very unlikely, that we will get through 2009
with another bubble rather than an epic crash – but there is no longer
any way to avoid collapse at some
point in the near future. What emerges from that collapse is up to us: a
new dark age is possible, but I am hopeful that there is enough sentiment,
world-wide, in favor of love and freedom to tilt things in a healthy
direction. The information age has exposed and explained
the corrupt
and coercive nature of government, and its constant and inevitable
failure, more widely than ever possible before; all the propaganda in
the world cannot put that genie back in the bottle. Today, even before the
inauguration, Obama's supporters are increasingly
waking up to the reality that the new "decider" will
continue the war, the empire, and nearly everything else Democrat voters
had hoped to change, while – this is the part that will take a bit
longer to hit home – finishing the destruction of America via debt,
inflation, and police-state repression. In the end, the most violent and
destructive organization ever conceived – the coercive State – will be
ever-more-widely seen for what it is. That
doesn't mean the lizard-eyed power elite and their psychopathic
underlings won't do all they can to continue their so-far successful
campaign to turn the U.S. into a vast, open-air prison camp (what else can
you call it when you actually need permission
from your masters just to leave?). But the bemused tolerance of the
American people for all this, and their willingness to impute healthy
motives to those imposing the tyranny, is already fading. I sense that
much of that tolerance will be gone by summer – and the government seems
to think so too, given that U.S.
Army troops are already deployed on American streets (video; 7 min 3
sec) and that other preparations have clearly been made to "deal
with" massive civil unrest. So
be ready for the worst, but remember what might eventually be wrung from
it: a world without tyrants, without war, without the ancient and
murderous evil of systematic, organized violence and coercion. "A
world without you"
(MP3 audio, a minute or so, or listen to the WAV file version here),
as Neo tells the inhuman overlords of the Matrix
after breaking free of their control – a world, if we succeed, with love
and freedom at its core.
Notes: * I haven't always included mention of the possibility of a drop in prices in my discussions of Peak Oil – a temporary price drop due to lower demand seemed an obvious possibility, and a major drop seemed unlikely. What had seemed a reasonable editing choice now seems – well, less reasonable.
Glen
Allport
co-authored The User's Guide to OS/2
from
Compute! Books and is the author of The
Paradise Paradigm: On Creating a World of Compassion, Freedom, and Prosperity.
He maintains paradise-paradigm.net.
This is one in a series of columns on the human condition.
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