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The Paradise Perspective: Commentary from a Free and Compassionate Alternate Reality The Year Ahead: 2009 by Glen Allport Exclusive to STR December 31, 2008 "We
are facing an unprecedented emergency," [ "When
the bond market crashes [expected
timing: 'any day now'], its going to be 15 on the Richter scale.
Its going to be enormous. Its far more dangerous than the stock
market crashing. When the bond market crashes, the hyperinflation
starts." ~
Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com,
interviewed by The
Gold Report -
Introduction - The
tone and direction for the coming year seem clear enough: ominous, and
downward. Down for living
standards; down for levels of employment; down for world trade; down for
investment portfolios and retirement funds; down for the prosperity and
even the physical safety of the lower and middle classes in the Levels
of freedom are headed downward also, as the power elite worldwide use the
time-honored method of responding to a crisis any crisis as a tool to increase their own power. From ancient Thank
goodness for small favors! What a nightmare it would be if tyrants (and
their central bankers) ever did
catch on to such an obvious tool. -
1 - The
Landscape Darkens as the Storm Begins As
predicted
in this space last year (and earlier; for instance in March
of 2007, well before the meltdown began in August of that year), an
epic and global financial crash is now underway. Worldwide, stock market
investors have lost about $32
trillion in wealth in
the last year, per Eric Fry of Agora
Financial. Throw in
the losses in real estate, bonds, and commodities, and the total loss
might exceed $60 trillion,
reports Kurt
Kasun, who adds: "This is beyond rescue. It is virtually
impossible to overstate the dire consequences resulting from the severity
of the declines recently experienced in almost all asset classes--from
both a technical and fundamental viewpoint."
The
consequences have indeed been dire, and they aren't over yet. Major
financial institutions and other businesses are failing in large numbers,
retailers were slammed with dramatically
lower consumer spending this critical holiday season, unemployment
is skyrocketing, the mortgage crisis continues, housing sales and prices
continue falling, and many state, county, and city governments are in
serious financial trouble and responding with higher taxes and fees at the
worst possible time for an increasingly impoverished public. Concern over
the solvency
of U.S. debt and thus the dollar itself is being voiced, and with good
reason, especially since the falling "Bear
Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Bros., -
2 - How
the Experts Missed the Obvious The
global financial crisis now underway is larger and deeper than any in
living memory; it will be talked about for millennia, assuming mankind
survives that long. Yet most economists and talking heads in the
lamestream media, including print as well as television, failed to see it
coming, just as they missed the call on the housing and dot-com bubbles. Paul
Krugman confessed last week on the NY
Times Opinion page that ". . . the failure [of economists] to see
the most obvious bubble of my lifetime remains a puzzle." It
may be a puzzle to Krugman, but the answer is simple: Most economists and
paid commentators are Keynesians
(see also this
video on the results of Keynesian policy; 7 min 29 sec) who believe in
government economic intervention (i.e., control via taxation, regulation
and spending) combined with central
banks and fiat currencies. In short, Keynesianism consists largely of
central planning (the lynchpin of the old Soviet Union and Red China under
Mao, although Keynesianism allows for a semi-market economy) combined with
heavy taxation and epic levels of unrestrained counterfeiting, with the
wealth thus extracted from citizens being spent on more
central planning and, in the case of the United States in particular, on
war and on maintenance of an empire; for example, on our 750+
foreign military bases (see also here)
around the planet. The wealth thus drained from the lower and middle
classes flows to favored
corporations, government agencies, and other special interests. Overall,
the wealth extracted from citizens is redirected to those who
already have wealth and power, for they
control the system. What little does
flow to the lower and middle classes (Social Security, Medicare,
"free" education, welfare payments, etc.) has the added benefit,
from the elite's point of view, of making the great mass of citizens
ever-more dependent upon the State; eventually, the helpless, infantilized
citizenry looks to the State for nearly everything. No
wonder Keynesians have been so clueless: Those
mechanisms and their side-effects
are the cause of the
present crisis. Why,
then, do so many economists and commentators hold Keynesian views? Because
those same mechanisms are also the
core of the elite's wealth and power, and since the elite control the
major broadcast and print media and most universities, any economist or
paid commentator who does not champion the Holy Trinity of government
intervention, central banking, and fiat currency is shut out of the
system. Gary North describes the process, especially in regards to
academia, in a reality-based horror story titled How
Academic Guilds Police Higher Education. I
have previously described the effect of misperceiving reality due to
inaccurate mental frameworks in Blinding
by Paradigm. Such misperception is especially common, and highly
destructive, in regards to politics and the nature of coercive government
itself. As
a paradigm, Keynesian
economics is on a par with the
divine right of kings: an idea (or set of ideas) so shockingly
dishonest and out of synch with reality that it clearly exists only as rationalization for thuggery, theft, and fraud. No wonder
those who see the world (or at least describe the world to others) in
terms of this paradigm so often miss the obvious. Getting things right is
not the purpose of this paradigm; the purpose is keeping
things right that is, keeping the powerful in power and the masses in
their place. One
bright spot in the current storm is that intelligent and honest
commentators such as Congressman Ron
Paul, investor Jim
Rogers, and economist Peter
Schiff are getting more respect and exposure as a result of having
been consistently right on where we were headed (links are to videos). All
three of these men, in particular, have been repeatedly interviewed on
national television lately and the point has often been made that they predicted
the current crisis years in advance while most other commentators were
denying or downplaying the problems and sometimes literally laughing at
the men who we now know were right. There
is no mystery to how Paul, Rogers, and Schiff saw the future with such
clarity: they simply used a more accurate paradigm for understanding human
action and the markets. Such (largely) Austrian-oriented
bears as these three are likely to continue their dour "winning"
streaks, because 2009 looks to be even harsher and scarier than 2008. -
3 - Yet
Again, a Crisis Becomes an Excuse for Tyranny and Corruption Government
response to the financial crisis has mainly consisted of throwing taxpayer
money at the problem in Keynesian fashion no surprise although not
even I imagined we would see trillions
of dollars being created and given to the culprits as a means of
allegedly "saving" the system. This is not mere Keynesianism; it
is Keynesianism on steroids and crystal meth. It
would be irresponsible in the extreme for an individual to forestall a
personal recession by taking out newer, bigger loans when the old loans
can't be repaid. However, this is precisely what we are planning on a
national level. ~ Peter Schiff, There's
No Pain-Free Cure for Recession, Nearly
everything the federal government, the president-elect, and the Federal
Reserve have done or have announced plans to do runs counter to what is
necessary to recover from today's unfolding disaster. Actual and proposed
actions consist almost entirely of short-term pseudo-fixes, jaw-dropping
thefts from American taxpayers, and shameless, outright power-grabs. All of this will make the problem worse, prolonging and deepening
the pain. Similar Keynesian policies have failed and caused harm in Japan
since the 1990s, and such measures greatly prolonged the pain after the
American stock market crash of 1929. Both Hoover
and FDR
threw taxpayer money and centralized control at the problem, turning what
could have been a short, sharp downturn into a 17-year disaster so
horrifying it was quickly labeled "the Great Depression." Not
until after WWII (during which rationing
was imposed for gasoline, sugar, butter, meat, and other
things) did Of
course, not everyone is hurting
today; just as a relatively few people and businesses get rich
off the horrors of war and terrorism (and as government power grows
with war and terrorism as an excuse), today's financial destruction has
become an incredible windfall for some, as suggested earlier. One can
almost hear the excited gibbering of the power elite: "A Crisis,
hooray! Thank the Dark Powers that Be! Let us make the most of this
precious gift, for the People are never so pliant, so willing to give us
their wealth and power, as when a lovely-scary Crisis is at hand!" And
so, as mentioned, the Give
that last sentence a moment's thought: a
small group of people gave trillions
of your dollars not that
you have that much money
to, well, mostly to crooks and failed businessmen. No one asked your
permission, and now suddenly you and your children and grandchildren, and
probably even their
grandchildren, are in debt for an unpayable, galactic-sized pile of money
money you did not borrow or spend, but which others did in your name! This
dizzying largess has put American taxpayers on the hook for another $8.5
trillion (in addition to our previous national debt) so far with
much more to come, including President-elect Obama's
"stimulus" plans, recently estimated at $850 billion and
growing. In case you were wondering: Yes, this
is serious money. The entire
Gross Domestic Product of the The
bailouts have thus already cost us about three times the annual Federal
budget, and more than half of the
nation's entire annual economic output. Actually, given the
precipitous and continuing drop in our -
4 - The
Hyperinflation Express Has
such massive creation of money from thin air ever been done before? Yes,
many times, and you might be curious to know how it typically works out.
The answer is, basically: Not so
good. Here's a WikiPedia link on the topic of "a
massive and rapid increase in the amount of money, which is not
supported by growth in the output of goods and services" their
definition (and mine) of the cause of hyperinflation. In every case,
hyperinflation has been a disaster to the people it was inflicted upon,
with the level of harm roughly correlated to the speed and amount of money
creation. The Wiki article includes a long list of examples, and you would
not want to have lived through
any of them; poverty, hunger, violence, and even revolution are common
side-effects. Partial or total destruction of the middle class is another
typical result of hyperinflation. Isn't
the destruction of wealth we have seen of late deflationary? Well, yes and no (it's a complex question), but
consider Eric deCarbonnel's description of hyperinflation's onset in "As
an example of deflation leading to hyperinflation, consider the case of
the "Eventually,
as a result of the money supply's rapid expansion, the nation's massive
foreign debt, and the shrinking economy, German citizens lost all
confidence in their currency, and the
How Deflation Creates Hyperinflation by Eric deCarbonnel Note
the highlighted, penultimate sentence in that last paragraph. Then
consider that unlike the German mark of the 1920s, today's U.S. dollar is
both the primary reserve currency for the entire planet and has been used as a store of wealth around the world for decades
by everyone from Columbian drug lords to Siberian peasants. According to
at least one recent estimate, "two
thirds of all dollar money balances are held overseas." That
has already begun to change, but the trickle of dollar repatriation is
about to become a tsunami. Other nations (China,
Times
have changed, and blowback from that long-standing arrogance and
malfeasance is about to hit these shores with staggering force. In
addition to the inflationary effect of today's reckless dollar creation
for "bailouts," "stimulus," and other nonsense, we can
expect a tidal wave of existing, long-sequestered dollars to arrive from
overseas as people throughout both hemispheres trade their dollars for
something anything that might actually hold its value. Adding fuel
to this dollar repatriation will be a widespread desire to help destroy
the hated dollar system itself, including the aggressive, oversized
American military that both feeds upon and helps prop up that system. Some
percentage of these foreign dollars will be spent on gold and silver, the
only common forms of money that cannot be printed into worthlessness or
otherwise defaulted on. The precious
metals market is extremely small relative to other investment
categories. As investors flee to the safety of precious metals, it won't
take much to send prices of those metals to the moon. Or, heck, to Alpha
Centauri. It
is worth noting that the United
States has already endured hyperinflation twice, once during the
Revolutionary War when our fiat "continental currency" lost so
much value that the phrase "not worth a continental" entered the
American lexicon, and then again during the Civil War. Fortunately for
those who benefit from inflationary policy, most The
"massive and rapid increase in the amount of money" that we have
witnessed in the last six months is sure to continue, if only because the
predicted federal budget deficit is expanding at near lightspeed, with
some estimates for just the deficit,
not the budget as a whole topping $1.5
trillion per year. And what about all those trillions already created
recently? Don't ask; it's apparently easier to pretend they don't exist.
For that matter, don't even ask who got
the money Bloomberg
News tried and failed to get the Fed "to disclose the recipients
of more than $2 trillion of emergency loans from That
would seem to clear up who is actually In
Charge in these We
do know who the $700 billion
TARP money went to, but this particular $700 billion was given with no
strings attached, and the banks that received these billions are not
interested in providing any sort of accounting of how
they are spending the taxpayers' money. (For a look at where about
$200 billion has gone so far--not how the favored institutions have spent the money, but which institutions got the money--see the list and link at the end of this column. I
highly recommend spending a moment with this list; seeing such enormous
numbers written out in full for dozens of banks and other financial firms
has real impact). Nor
are the banks using this ocean of new cash to ramp up loans to individuals
or businesses instead a severe credit
crunch is in the news. Bonuses
of breath-taking size many larger than what most families earn in
a lifetime have continued at many of the firms being bailed out, which
is to say that the same people who helped create this mess are being hugely
rewarded at taxpayer expense. In normal times, the people responsible
for such a disaster especially given that outright
fraud at several levels seems fundamental to the whole problem
would be hauled into court on criminal charges, not handed millions of
dollars in free money from the taxpayers. When
blatant theft, corruption, and contempt for the rule of law become this
visible at the highest levels of government and finance, you know that
things have gone way beyond "normal" and are deep in the danger
zone. The -
5 - At
the Edge of a Fractal Break "What
seems to spook people now is the possibility that everybody in charge of
everything is a fraud or a crook. Legitimacy has left the system."
~ James
Howard Kunstler, Legitimacy
Dwindles Fractals
"appear similar at all levels of magnification" (quoting the
linked WikiPedia article) as, for example, does corruption and other
psychopathic behavior at various levels of All
of that is now coming to an end. A fractal break is occurring. The
theft and corruption aren't going away, but instead increasing
exponentially. The pattern is visibly changing, and the common perception
of the We
never got it right, of course: our early slavery and genocide hardly fit
with the ideals of liberty, and especially since 1913, our federal
government has grown like a cancer to a size previously unthinkable. So
perhaps it is no surprise that the whole enterprise is now collapsing,
with government power increasingly drowning individual freedom in a tidal
wave of police-state and coercive-socialist tyranny. The America of Henry
David Thoreau, of Mark Twain, of Walt Whitman, of Thomas Jefferson and Tom
Paine and the millions more who brought this nation into being and kept it
alive in their hearts and, to a large extent, on the ground, for so long
that America, the real
America, the "asylum for mankind" that Paine wrote about so
eloquently that America is gone, fading already into myth and legend,
gone soon even from living memory as the last citizens who remember
America's dying embers wink out from this world, one by one. In
their place: a new citizenry, molded by government schooling and control
and constant statist propaganda, clamoring now for a strongman to take
control preferably (according to a recent popularity contest) a
strongman with winning smiles and a vague message of "change"
and "hope." This new strongman wants the Bush
war-and-torture team to stay on and has already done much else to
suggest that "change" was indeed mostly a slogan, but,
thankfully for the power elite, hope springs eternal. Meanwhile, the U.S.
Army has already
begun "homeland tours" and plans to have "20,000
uniformed troops inside the -
- - - - By
now, you will not be surprised to learn that the mildest predictions I
find even slightly credible for the coming year are those labeled by the
mainstream as extreme or frightening: for example, here is Fortune Magazine on 8
Really, Really Scary Predictions.
The subtitle is "Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune
spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say
about the future is frightening." "Really, really scary?" Nah. I'll see your "Dow 4,000" and raise you . . . . But I'm getting ahead of myself. Part II of this column, including predictions, will follow sometime next week. Note: Tracking
Treasury's spending of bailout funds updated http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28316652/
Wells
JPMorgan
Chase & Co. Citigroup
Inc. Bank
of America Corporation The
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Morgan
Stanley Merrill
Lynch & Co., Inc. Capital
One Financial Corporation SunTrust
Banks, Inc. Regions
Financial Corp. Birmingham AL $3,500,000,000 BB&T
Corp. Bank
of New York Mellon Corporation KeyCorp
Cleveland OH $2,500,000,000 Comerica
Inc. State
Street Corporation Marshall
& Ilsley Corporation Northern
Trust Corporation Popular,
Inc. San Juan PR $935,000,000 First
Horizon National Corporation Associated
Banc-Corp Webster
Financial City
National Corporation TCF
Financial Corporation South
Financial Group, Inc. Wilmington
Trust Corporation East
Sterling
Financial Corporation Valley
National Bancorp Wayne NJ $300,000,000 Susquehanna
Bancshares, Inc Lititz PA $300,000,000 Citizens
Republic Bancorp, Inc. SVB
Financial Group Trustmark
Corporation Jackson MS $215,000,000 Umpqua
Holdings Corp. Washington
Federal Inc. MB
Financial Inc. First
Midwest Bancorp, Inc. First
Pacific
Capital Bancorp United
Community Banks, Inc. Boston
Private Financial Holdings, Inc. Provident
Bancshares Corp. National
Penn Bancshares, Inc. Boyertown PA $150,000,000 Sterling
Bancshares, Inc. Banner
Corporation Signature
Bank Taylor
Capital Group Old
National Bancorp Evansville IN $100,000,000 Pinnacle
Financial Partners, Inc. Iberiabank
Corporation Midwest
Banc Holdings, Inc. Sandy
Spring Bancorp, Inc. Olney MD $83,094,000 Columbia
Banking System, Inc. TowneBank
Portsmouth VA $76,458,000 Wesbanco
Bank Inc. Bank
of the Ozarks, Inc. Little Rock AR $75,000,000 Independent
Bank Corporation Virginia
Commerce Bancorp Southwest
Bancorp, Inc. Superior
Bancorp Inc. Nara
Bancorp, Inc. First
Financial Holdings Inc. Wilshire
Bancorp, Inc. Great
Southern Bancorp Springfield MO $58,000,000 Center
Financial Corporation NewBridge
Bancorp Ameris
Bancorp Moultrie GA $52,000,000 The
Bancorp, Inc. Southern
Community Financial Corp. Winston-Salem NC $42,750,000 First
Community Bankshares Inc. Capital
Bank Corporation Heritage
Commerce Corp. Cascade
Financial Corporation Eagle
Bancorp, Inc. TIB
Financial Corp First
State
Bancorp, Inc. Porter
Bancorp Inc. Encore
Bancshares Inc. Bank
of Bank
of Marin Bancorp Centerstate
Banks of Florida Inc. LNB
Bancorp Inc. HF
Financial Corp. Heritage
Financial Corporation Severn
Bancorp, Inc. Blue
Valley Ban Corp Unity
Bancorp, Inc. Citizens
South Banking Corporation First
PacTrust Bancorp, Inc. HopFed
Bancorp Bank
of Commerce Holdings 1st
FS Corporation Valley
Financial Corporation LSB
Corporation North First
Community Corporation First
Litchfield Financial Central
Bancorp, Inc. Coastal
Banking Company, Inc. Southern
Missouri Bancorp, Inc. Poplar Bluff MO $9,550,000 Broadway
Financial Corporation Central
Federal Corporation Fairlawn OH $7,225,000 Old
Line Bancshares, Inc. Fidelity
Bancorp, Inc. Pacific
International Bancorp Seattle WA $6,500,000 FPB
Bancorp, Northeast
Bancorp Lewiston ME $4,227,000 In
addition to all that, the MSNBC article states that "Another $40
billion went to bail out insurance giant
Glen
Allport
co-authored The User's Guide to OS/2
from
Compute! Books and is the author of The
Paradise Paradigm: On Creating a World of Compassion, Freedom, and Prosperity.
He maintains paradise-paradigm.net.
This is one in a series of columns on the human condition. |